CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2026-01-18T18:09:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2026-01-18T18:09ZDONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/44032/-1
CME Note: Halo CME first seen to the East by STEREO A COR2 beginning at 2026-01-18T18:09Z, as well as by GOES CCOR-1 as a halo in later frames. This CME was initially covered by a routine scheduled downlink data gap in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 which began at 2026-01-18T18:00Z but LASCO data became fully available later. The source of this CME is a long duration X1.9 flare from Active Region 14341 (S15E20), which peaked at 2026-01-18T18:09Z, with some possible contribution from Active Region 14345 (S16E27). This flare is visible in SDO AIA 94 and 131 and the associated eruption is seen as a wide region of dimming and field line opening in SDO AIA 193, 211 and GOES SUVI 284, as well as very high and large area post eruptive arcades seen in SDO AIA 94, 304 and 193. Ejecta is seen in SDO AIA 193 and in STEREO A EUV 304 imagery (southwardly directed off the SE limb as seen from STEREO A). STEREO A 195 also sees it as a large opening of field lines close to the limb, around the equator. Arrival at L1: Characterized by a sharp amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from ~6nT at 2026-01-19T18:55Z to ~86nT at 2026-01-19T18:59Z. The solar wind data is likely contaminated due to a known issue with the ACE spacecraft during solar energetic particle events, however solar wind data returns around 2026-01-19T21:18Z measuring ~1000 km/s. Density increased from ~3 p/cc at 2026-01-19T18:55Z to 29 p/cc at 2026-01-19T19:02Z. Temperature observed an increase from ~65,000 K at 2026-01-19T21:15Z to ~900,000 K at 2026-01-19T21:23Z. A large southern coronal hole which crossed the central meridian on 2026-01-15 was located to the south and west of the eruptive source for CME: 2026-01-18T18:09Z (S15E20), and while no distinct coronal high speed stream signature was identified within this arrival signature the location and size of the coronal hole may likely have influenced this CME as it traveled to and arrived at L1.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-01-19T18:55Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 8.67
Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-01-20T01:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:
Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs
CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):
Notes:
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2026 Jan 19 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels (R3-Strong) following an X1.9/3b
flare that peaked at 18/1809 UTC from Region 4341 (S11E24,
Dkc/beta-gamma). Associated with this flare were Type II (est. speed 693
km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps, along with an F10.7 radio burst (3,200
sfu) with a Castelli-U signature. In addition, several small filaments
near Region 4341 were observed erupting/disappearing simultaneously as
the flare erupted.
An associated full halo CME was first noted in GOES CCOR-1 imagery at
~18/1830 UTC. Forecasters await additional coronagraph imagery in order
to conduct their analysis to determine arrival time and potential
impacts at Earth.
Region 4341 also added a C7.1/Sf flare at 18/0620 UTC, as well as a few
low-level C-class flares during the period. A weak delta configuration
was noted in the intermediate spots area, despite overall decay
occurring. Region 4343 (S11W35, Dao/beta) also exhibited overall decay,
as did Region 4346 (S14E34, Axx/alpha). Regions 4342 (N16E22, Dac/beta),
4344 (N18E11, Dao/beta), 4345 (S16E24, Cso/beta), and newly numbered
4348 (S19W02, Cao/beta) all observed growth throughout the period.
Region 4347 (N10E47, Hsx/alpha) remained unchanged.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels (R1/R2,
Minor/Moderate), with a slight chance for additional X-class flares
(R3-Strong) through 21 Jan primarily due to the magnetic structure and
recent history of Region 4341.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 4,618 pfu at 18/1555 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
reached S1 (Minor) storm levels at 18/2255 UTC following the X1.9 flare
mentioned above.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels
through 21 Jan under sustained positive polarity CH influences. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at S1 (Minor)
storm levels through at least midday on 19 Jan.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected positive polarity CH influences. Total
magnetic field strength averaged near 7 nT, while the Bz component
trended towards a negative position, seeing maximum southward
deflections reaching -8 nT. Solar wind speeds steadily declined from
over 700 km/s to end the period just under 500 km/s. Phi angle was
predominantly oriented in a positive solar sector.
.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to persist through 20 Jan as
influence from a recurrent, positive polarity coronal hole will likely
continue over the next three days. Additional enhancements are
anticipated with the arrival of the halo CME, likely sometime on 19-20
Jan. Adjustments will be made to the forecast following the outcome of
the modeling and analysis of the CME.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels.
.Forecast...
Unsettled to active levels are expected on 19-20 Jan, decreasing to
mostly unsettled levels on 21 Jan, as positive polarity CH effects
continue. Pending the outcome of the CME analysis, higher storm levels
are possible as early as the end of the day on 19 Jan.
----
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2026 Jan 19 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels (R3-Strong) following a long-duration
X1.9/3b flare that peaked at 18/1809 UTC from Region 4341 (S11E11,
Dkc/beta-gamma). Associated with this flare were Type II (est. speed 693
km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps, along with an F10.7 radio burst (3,200
sfu) and a Castelli-U radio signature. In addition, several small
filaments near Region 4341 were observed erupting/disappearing
simultaneously during the event.
An associated full halo CME was first noted in GOES CCOR-1 imagery at
~18/1830 UTC. Analysis and modeling of the event suggested arrival of
the CME at Earth early on 20 Jan. No other potentially Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels (R1/R2,
Minor/Moderate), with a slight chance for additional X-class flares
(R3-Strong) through 21 Jan primarily due to the magnetic structure and
recent history of Region 4341.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 4,618 pfu at 18/1555 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
steadily increased through the period. It reached S3 (Strong) storm
levels at 19/1040 UTC due to activity associated with the the X1.9 flare
mentioned above.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels
through 19 Jan. A decreased to moderate levels is likely over 20-21 Jan
due to activity anticipated with the arrival of the CME associated with
the X1.9 flare. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
remain well above warning threshold (>10 MeV proton flux above 10 pfu)
storm levels through at least 20 Jan. Peak flux is expected to be
observed around the time of arrival of the CME early on 20 Jan.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected positive polarity CH influences. Total
magnetic field strength was between 7-9 nT, while the Bz component
reached as far south as -8 nT. Solar wind speeds steadily declined
through the period, with an abrupt drop observed after 19/0920 UTC,
likely due the proton event compromising the sensor. Phi angle
was oriented in the positive solar sector.
.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to persist through 19 Jan
due to influence from the recurrent, positive polarity coronal hole.
Additional enhancements are anticipated with the arrival of the halo CME
associated with the X1.9 flare, likely sometime early on 20 Jan.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is likely to continue as quiet to active levels on
19 Jan. Very early on 20 Jan, the arrival of the CME associated with the
X1.9 flare is anticipated. Geomagnetic conditions are likely to increase
to the G3-G4 (Strong-Severe) level after arrival. G1 (Minor) storm
conditions are likely over 21 Jan as CME effects wane and influence from
the positive polarity CH HSS resumes.
---
Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2026 Jan 19 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 19-Jan 21 2026 is 8.00 (NOAA Scale
G4).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 19-Jan 21 2026
Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 21
00-03UT 3.33 5.00 (G1) 4.33
03-06UT 1.67 5.67 (G2) 4.67 (G1)
06-09UT 0.67 8.00 (G4) 4.00
09-12UT 1.00 5.67 (G2) 3.00
12-15UT 3.33 6.67 (G3) 2.33
15-18UT 3.33 6.00 (G2) 2.67
18-21UT 3.00 5.33 (G1) 2.00
21-00UT 4.33 5.00 (G1) 3.00
Rationale: G3-G4 (Strong-Severe) geomagnetic storms are likely on early
on 20 Jan due to the anticipated arrival of a halo CME that left the Sun
on 18 Jan.
Lead Time: 8.07 hour(s)Difference: -6.08 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) on 2026-01-19T10:51Z
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